Friday, February 4, 2022

Up to a third of General Conference delegates can't get visas in time

Today's post is by UM & Global blogmaster Dr. David W. Scott, Mission Theologian at the General Board of Global Ministries. The opinions and analysis expressed here are Dr. Scott's own and do not reflect in any way the official position of Global Ministries.

There has been a lot of recent debate about vaccine requirements as a bar to participation in General Conference by delegates from outside the United States. This debate has surfaced important issues about international equality and equity within the church. It has, however, overlooked the second big bar to participation in General Conference by delegates from outside the United States: visas.

Heather Hahn's recent article about UMC debates emphasizes, though, that visas are just as important as vaccinations for allowing General Conference to happen. And new data show that it may be visas, rather than vaccinations, that are the more insurmountable obstacle. Up to a third of General Conference delegates (and three-quarters of those from outside the United States) may not be able to obtain visas in time to participate in an August 2022 General Conference.

Visas are difficult to obtain even in normal times, as previously reported. But the pandemic has created anything but normal times over the past two years, making the process much slower and more difficult.

The wait times for visa processing depends on both the demand for visas from a country and the capacity of the consulate in that country to process visas. Visa wait times vary somewhat by country and from year to year, but normally, they are around two months.

COVID has disrupted normal wait times in many countries, however. During some parts of the pandemic, the US government was not issuing visas at all, at least to particular countries. This has created a backlog of demand for visas in some countries. COVID may have also diminished the capacity of various consulates to process visas in some cases.

The result is that in a number of countries, including countries where UMC General Conference delegates reside, wait times for obtaining visas have become quite long. Moreover, visas are still completely unavailable in a few countries where General Conference delegates reside. Other countries have returned to fairly normal wait times.

Based on the visa appointment wait times reported by the US State Department, there are up to 286 General Conference delegates who, if they were to start the process today in the US consulate in the capital of their country, would not even be able to get a visa application interview before General Conference is scheduled to meet. This is approximately a third of the total number of delegates and just over three quarters of the delegates from outside the United States.

Moreover, having a visa application interview is no guarantee of getting a visa, and in some cases there is additional processing time required to issue the visa. That additional processing time could mean that several more delegates would not be able to get visas before General Conference is scheduled to meet in August if they started the process today.

This group includes all of the delegates from the DRC (the country with the second highest number of United Methodists) and the Philippines (representing an entire central conference). It also includes a variety of other African and European countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Russia, all of which have substantial delegate counts. If they start now, at current rates, Nigerian delegates couldn’t get visas in time for General Conference in 2024.

Of course, some of these delegates may already have started the visa process. The US government began processing visas again in most countries three months ago. Not only did that represent an earlier start to the process, if delegates applied then, the timing of their interview would be based on wait times at that point, which may have been lower.

Some delegates may already have visas for other purposes. In a typical General Conference year, some delegates have visitor visas already because of travel to the United States for other church meetings or business or personal travel. That number is likely to be lower this year because of the pause in travel due to the pandemic.

It is possible that the visa application wait times could come down, though in many cases, they would need to come down substantially to allow delegates to participate. There are also sometimes other work arounds – for instance, applying in another nearby country (which is not allowed in all cases).

Part of the challenge of visas is that, because the process is controlled entirely by the US government, the UMC has little leverage to affect the outcome or timing. UMC leaders can advocate on behalf of delegates, and the Commission on General Conference is undoubtedly doing so, but such advocacy has limited effectiveness even in normal times.

Thus, even with the exceptions noted above, an in-person General Conference held in the United States in August would likely not allow representatives from a substantial portion of the church to participate.

Obviously, I cannot speak for the Commission on General Conference. But given their previous statements about their desire to have an in-person General Conference with representation from a wide and representative array of United Methodists, the outlook for holding General Conference this year does not look good.

13 comments:

  1. This is a naive question, but is there any serious discussion about holding GC outside the U.S.? Under current circumstances, would it be easier to make U.S. delegates travel? Does that get us around any of these roadblocks?

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    1. There had been at one point plans to hold General Conference in the Philippines in 2024 and Zimbabwe in 2028. The question about holding General Conference outside the United States in the future is a good one for several reasons. Ease of visas is one consideration, as different countries have different regulations and processes.

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  2. Looks like GC2022 is out. It really doesn't make sense to hold General Conference in 2023 and then turn around and do it again in 2024. We've already kicked the can this far down the road...so why don't we just try to get back on schedule in 2024? I know folks are anxious to have certain decisions made, but if we're not all at the table then it's not an inclusive decision.

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  3. So if GC was postponed until 2024, as the article states, we may not be able to have GC then also because some Nigerian delegates might not be able to attend even if they started the visa process now. Plus, we would not know who the 2024 delegates are until they are elected sometime in 2023, so then we are back at square one, postponing a GC indefinitely into the future due to the world's circumstances. I realize there are time differences and technology challenges, but have we really exhausted all possibilities of having a virtual GC? It might be our only hope to ever having a GC in the foreseeable future. In continuing to postpone, are we watching our denomination crumble down upon us? Where does faith and trust in our God come into play instead of always determining how we can't?

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  4. Virtual GC would have been the "normal" if there is technology that can handle it as of now, in response to the analysis about the visa and election of delegates! If we want to prevent the last episode of substitution, I think we should be thinking about the virtual GC to enable the church to move forward! We are all aware of the importance of church meetings, but may be God is using this natural event of covid-19 and its effect about the backlog of visa processing to tell us something about where the church should be! My prayers are with the organizers of the GC as they continue to do all that they could to save souls and transform the world!
    Pastor Amos Oladipo, Northern Illinois Conference, Chicago, USA

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    1. The lead time for developing and testing the software enhancements to Zoom and the like probably would force a delay in the GC. Also, not all countries may have the IT infrastructure to support the kind of teleconferencing necessary. And finally, developing the protocols within the UMC for how voting, committee meetings, etc. would work might require more lead time than is available. However, I think that it's very important to get the GC in this year to address the significant issues that face the UMC.

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  5. Since it is likely that GC will be delayed again, we should use this time to pray and seek God's direction. Perhaps God is attempting to speak to the UMC.

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    1. I believe God IS speaking to the UMC. The problems is that God's Word is being heard in two very opposing ways

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  6. I always appreciate your thoughtful posts. But it seems like your 1/3 number assumes that no delegates outside the U.S. have applied for a visa yet. I don't believe that this is the case. The date for General Conference has been known for some time. There are always delegates that are not seated at General Conference due to visa issues and unfortunate fact has not kept us from conferencing in the past. I wonder what would happen if we allowed those that must to participate virtually while the others gather in person. It would be less than ideal, but better than nothing. Ideal is a long distance in our review mirror.

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    1. As the article states, it's up to a third, and for all the reasons cited in the article, that number is probably lower. The percentage of delegates who couldn't get visas in 2019, though, was 3.6%. It's fair to discuss what the appropriate threshold should be (both in terms of percentages and geographic representation) for holding a General Conference that adequately reflects the diversity of the global connection.

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  7. Let's just fly them to Mexico and pick them up in Texas after they've crossed the border. Anyone can get in that way. Documentation, covid shots, visas, authentication of employment, substantial proof you will return to your country of origin, NO PROBLEMO!

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  8. Couldn't a zoom connection be made in a couple key areas where the delegates could gather together?

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  9. Even where visas might be issued, don't assume that our delegates could get an appointment for a visa. I have a friend here in Uganda who needs an appointment merely to get a document notarized at the embassy, something requiring much less attention than a visa does, however she has been trying since September and still cannot get an appointment that the embassy is willing to honor. Each time her appointment arrives she gets a notice from the embassy that it is closed do to COVID, she then has to go through the entire process a second time, taking up to two months before the next appointment is available, which is then cancelled the day before that appointment as well. What are the chances of ever getting a visa in this sort of environment?

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